武器强化+12理论上需要花费多少金币呢？数学家启动
<div class="pgc-img" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><br><p class="pgc-img-caption" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(119, 119, 119); line-height: 16px;"></p></div><p class="ql-align-center" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">大家的苍穹武器应该都到位了，那么到现在的强化等级是多少呢？韩服官网尤为大佬就为此进行了概率测算。</p><p class="ql-align-center" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">基于官方数据和玩家的实际花费测算，我们计算了到+12所需的费用和成功概率。</p><div class="pgc-img" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><p class="pgc-img-caption" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(119, 119, 119); line-height: 16px;"></p></div><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">从1到4很简单，概率为100％，所以可以忽略。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">到4消耗的金币花费为1,418,400。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">从4往上就会有失败几率了，但是到10为止，不会重置等级，所以也比较好测算。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">负二项分布的均值是k / p，几何分布的平均值为1 / p。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">总之，当概率为p时，一次尝试成功的平均次数是1 / p。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">将其乘以一次尝试的值，并将其添加到上一步骤的累积期望值，然后得到预计的花费。</p><div class="pgc-img" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><p class="pgc-img-caption" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; font-size: 12px; color: rgb(119, 119, 119); line-height: 16px;"></p></div><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">从10-11开始，计算就变得复杂起来。因为你每次+11失败，又要有一次+10的过程。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">但实际上+11失败是掉7，+12失败是掉8，所以可以减去相应的基础成本。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">+11的强化花费按照公式计算得出：</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">1 / 0.259 *（12,709,877 + 1,063,800-4,837,757）+ 4,837,757 = 39,339,378</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">同样，+12的预计花费计算如下：</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">1 / 0.18 *（39,339,378 + 1,773,000-6,681,677）+ 6,681,677 = 197,963,352</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">+11平均需要39,339,378金币。+12平均需要197,963,352金币。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">至于+13，有保护卷的情况下会掉0，这个计算起来就更复杂了，而且测算成本太高了。</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700;">以+12为基准，以前面提到的1.97E为平均值：</span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">平均值内成功+12的概率为66.8%</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">1亿金币以内成功+12的概率为41.6%</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">3亿金币以内成功+12的概率为81.6%</p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><br></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 16px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", "Helvetica Neue", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Tahoma, "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun; font-size: 14px;">转载自今日头条-DNF掌游宝，欢迎原作者在论坛投稿</span><br style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Tahoma, "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-weight: 700; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Tahoma, "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun; font-size: 14px;">17173DNF玩家补丁**</span><span style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Tahoma, "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun; font-size: 14px;"> [</span><a href="http://shang.qq.com/wpa/qunwpa?idkey=2e7e4ecc0cbf8bb4f94da9bb529af82b2142bbdb08e192bd8ae2b1d0cd21afc3" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 96, 158); font-family: Tahoma, "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun; font-size: 14px;">点击**</a><span style="color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Tahoma, "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun; font-size: 14px;">]</span></p><p></p> 武器强化+12理论上需要花费多少金币呢？数学家启动 阔怕，穷人溜了 这么说买个加12的钻石2.6E还能有90几率{:3132:} 而实际就是他这个强化概率根本不是个固定值，每次只要一出相关活动，成功率就会调低，说没调过的建议多强几件你们就知道了。 我朋友强化短剑3000人民币加赫尔德 没上12.....直接碎装备再见！ 一亿金币一般不可能上12，3亿的话还不如直接12卷吧，果然还是固伤容易玩 20个积分商城强化器，加上签到活动送的大概也有十多个吧，再加4000万金币，最后仍然是一把＋10苍穹?? 真想让固伤玩家看看，平均1亿9上12，固伤锻八大于12提升小于13提升，你跟我讲锻八肝？请固伤玩家先搬1亿9我看看？ 你敢说10上11有26？11上12几率有18？ 我有称号和赫尔德2亿9上12苍穹，还得谢谢策划不杀之恩？金币比例1比32 我信你个鬼 我3E都没上去 理论2e，实际2个强化器 我信你个鬼 今天开了200个盒子出了一张+11的铂金增幅卷卖了八千万去强化用了一亿才上11 6个百分比职业，都是苍穹，五把12，一把13！我没算多少钱，只知道*还不起了！ 我900万 上9 一发强化器上10 上12花了300w金币。。。魔盒抽的+10卷，连续成功两次。。。 什么理论都不靠谱，欧皇几个强化器就上去了，非酋几亿金币还不一定能上 9+10你告诉我成功率有30？你见过30成功率连续失败20多次才上去的吗 要不是我的圣耀在去年花了3亿金币加400左右时空石和110左右的强化器都没上12，我就信了。
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